
There does seem to be a new sense of optimism in the startup and venture community. August was one of the busier months I can remember, though my brain is turning to mush with all of the news to cover, so take that for what it is worth.
I know some are concerned about a double dip recession. I have no idea whether that will occur or not, but my general sense is that we didn't experience all of the pain we needed to given the radical shift in the economy that started last fall. The dot com bust of 2001-2003 actually caused much more pain in the tech sector as the Internet bubble deflated, and tens of thousands of jobs were lost in the Seattle area. We haven't seen anything that severe this time, at least in tech.
As to your question about "too many neophyte entrepreneurs" starting companies, I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing. Bill Gates and Paul Allen were neophyte entrepreneurs, as were Larry Page and Sergey Brin. Sometimes it takes a fresh set of entrepreneurial eyes to really figure out a problem, and the great thing about covering this beat is that entrepreneurs can come out of nowhere to really dominate a market. Still, at the end of the day, most will fail as you know.
I have no idea what it will take for the economy to get its footing again in Seattle. But I will say this: There's plenty of opportunity for entrepreneurs out there. The business world has been turned on its head -- everything from manufacturing to media to financial services -- and that actually plays to the advantage of entrepreneurial organizations and people.
Traditional businesses are getting blown up, and new models are emerging. There's certainly no shortage of problems that entrepreneurs can set out to solve. The key question is whether the capital will be there to support these new businesses? There's still money on the sidelines, and I am seeing some capital flowing. But it is tough to get cash to fuel new businesses. Entrepreneurs should bootstrap and treat every dollar in the business as if it were the last. But that's nothing new.
The iPhone has changed the game in mobile, the next big wave of innovation in the tech arena. So, no, I am not bored with the iPhone or the ecosystem forming around it. And it is just going to get more interesting as Google and Microsoft try to compete.
One thing that will be fascinating to watch is whether these iPhone app hobbyists actually can make a decent wage. Some will, some won't. But I have my doubts that big iPhone app businesses will form, since as readers on TechFlash have noted it is extremely difficult to build a business on the back of another company's platform.